Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.797503 5.734181 6.775750 8.015598 9.446784 11.042376 12.951102
2025-02-16 3.323395 4.486459 5.915089 7.781698 10.136878 12.988979 16.680808
2025-02-23 2.380044 3.576283 5.177780 7.440994 10.512738 14.487033 19.959040
2025-03-02 1.751643 2.901697 4.564893 7.082402 10.719557 15.693985 22.900507
2025-03-09 1.399757 2.528073 4.273615 7.075705 11.341974 17.450316 26.673386
2025-03-16 1.145979 2.242809 4.047858 7.103005 11.975768 19.237163 30.599567
2025-03-23 0.943173 1.993585 3.826401 7.085232 12.509042 20.889537 34.428799
2025-03-30 0.741576 1.698000 3.470074 6.781615 12.531802 21.738415 37.081998
2025-04-06 0.621839 1.530598 3.307046 6.775162 13.022728 23.335596 40.982839
2025-04-13 0.519418 1.373807 3.134263 6.719890 13.410393 24.778211 44.719291
2025-04-20 0.476535 1.337168 3.188089 7.088469 14.572560 27.581467 50.848278
2025-04-27 0.427411 1.274407 3.177053 7.325928 15.511430 30.062950 56.589024
2025-05-04 0.389403 1.232678 3.209129 7.663493 16.688467 33.077962 63.495509
2025-05-11 0.331078 1.123902 3.075489 7.642570 17.178143 34.913731 68.494420
2025-05-18 0.267848 0.983183 2.842000 7.374214 17.148529 35.798588 71.868593
2025-05-25 0.212985 0.848796 2.596404 7.040141 16.942793 36.327813 74.620150
2025-06-01 0.182649 0.780685 2.503881 7.040793 17.426640 38.185874 79.900123
2025-06-08 0.157992 0.723331 2.428541 7.070447 17.971486 40.193077 85.567772
2025-06-15 0.135370 0.665252 2.339695 7.053574 18.409304 42.013144 90.978333
2025-06-22 0.107992 0.578279 2.149422 6.751402 18.172693 42.455520 93.756576
2025-06-29 0.092808 0.533971 2.077008 6.745064 18.612172 44.303990 99.376621
2025-07-06 0.078766 0.488542 1.991313 6.690034 18.929346 45.914201 104.606687
2025-07-13 0.074976 0.488868 2.054755 7.057213 20.294503 49.823954 114.653130